Information Technology Trends 2003-2008

The following is a summary from the draft analysis of the ICT inventory performed by Sonjara at the request of USAID in June 2008.

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Continued Globalization of Software Development

Western firms continue outsourcing software development to overseas development to reduce IT development costs
First wave outsourcing vendors, particularly in India are now facing pressure on labor costs as their demand for local IT talent increases.
This has resulted in further exploration of markets with available IT talent in countries such as China and Vietnam.
The net result of this is that it is easier now to find local IT services in emerging markets to work with implementing the technology components of International Development projects. Further, there is great interest in capacity-building to encourage the growth of these local service providers.

Widespread leverage of Open Source solutions

Industry as a whole has embraced Open Source Software as one way of reducing costs, especially when bringing to market technology products with a large software component.
Use of Linux as an embedded operating system for devices such as routers, network appliances, phones and GPS navigation devices is an especially prevalent example of this.
Web-based software development also benefits from a large OSS user-base, with a wide variety of tools and applications greatly reducing the cost-barrier to entry for building online solutions.

Increased Cell Phone Penetration

It is estimated that the number of cellphone subscribers in the world passed the 3 billion mark in 2008.
The majority of this growth is coming from emerging markets, such as India, China, Africa and Latin America.
The technology is extremely attractive to developing countries as it is affordable to their population, and has relatively low infrastructure costs due to its wireless nature.
The most common data application on cellphones remains SMS text messaging.
The increasing ubiquity of the cellphone (and with it, text messaging) provides a cheap, long reaching mechanism to provide applications aimed at economic growth and social change.
Some experts suggest that the cellphone will ultimately replace the PC as the primary mechanism used to connect to the internet. However, as of 2008, this vision has yet to arrive.

Continued Growth of Internet Penetration

As of June 2008 it is estimated that 1.46 billion people (21.8% of the worlds population) have access to the internet. This is approximately double the number of people estimated to have had access in September 2003 (677 million).
The majority of this growth is from emerging markets, with Asia (especially China and India) contributing a large proportion.
The increased penetration, along with a maturing base of Open Source Software allowing low cost-barrier to entry, means that the internet is widely viewed as a highly cost-effective mechanism for economic growth and social change.
However, users in many developing nations can still face significant hurdles gaining access to or using the internet, based on governmental issues such as telecommunications regulations and censorship.

Commoditization of GPS

Global Positioning System technology moved from being a specialist application to achieving widespread integration with handheld devices such as cellphones, PDAs and laptops.
This technology is leading to a growth in development of location-based services, that use the devices location to provide context-specific information, often via a wireless broadband link, or provide context to data gathering activities.
While more widespread in developed nations, due to the current integration of the technology only in high-end chipsets, this technology can be leveraged for international development projects, such as spot reporting for epidemiological surveys. Data gathered in this way is ideal for integration with GIS systems.
This trend will most likely continue, with further commoditization integrating GPS into cheaper devices, thereby achieving greater penetration in developing markets.

Standardization and Commoditization of Wireless Broadband Technologies

Wireless broadband technologies have matured significantly in the period from 2003 to 2008.
The ratification of the 802.16e (WiMAX) standard in December 2005, along with the maturation of 3G broadband technologies, opened the door to widespread adoption of this standards-based technology.
Wireless broadband technologies are particularly attractive in developing countries, a the infrastructure investment and risk of theft is significantly lower than for a fixed network, which relies on placing expensive copper wires under the ground.

Hardware Improvements

Hardware costs are lowering, especially for data storage and laptops means that the cost barrier to entry is reduced.
Miniaturization and lower costs supports integration of computer equipment into lower cost commodities not traditionally seen as part of the computer market, such as refrigerators, cars or televisions.
Improvements in batteries lifespan, accompanied by improvements in energy efficiency, means that current technology is lower in energy usage (and continues to lower every year).

Digital Convergence

In addition to the emergence and increased usage of technology, there is a synergistic element as well to technological growth, where technologies reinforce, integrate, and expand other technologies. For example, there is a strong trend towards mobile data/internet access, as evidenced by high end cell phones and new cheap low power laptops currently coming onto the market. These tools often:

Have GPS integrated into their chipset;
Provide multiple wireless options for accessing broadband information;
Operate seamlessly around the globe;
Offer PC functionality (productivity applications, calendaring, contact lists);
Provide MP3 playback capacity;
Offer long battery life and low energy usage; and
Have access to SMS and email, as well as phone communications.